The Economic Report for this month highlights the strong process of global disinflation, the conservative stance of the COPOM, and the closure of global interest rates in the last months of 2023.

In 2023, we witnessed a faster global disinflation than the market expected, driven by the reorganization of production chains and the moderation of commodity prices. In this context, the central banks of major economies were able to choose to combat inflation in an “opportunistic” manner, enabling an interruption of the interest rate hike cycle in 2023. In the case of the United States, there is speculation that the interest rate cut cycle may begin as early as the first quarter of 2024.

Despite the improvement in the economic situation, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Brazil (COPOM) adopted a conservative stance, maintaining the indication that it foresees the maintenance of the current pace of interest rate cuts in the upcoming meetings. At the same time, the country’s net exports reached a record balance of almost 100 billion dollars, reflecting growth in the volume of exports, despite the decline in prices of commodities important for the export agenda.

December was also marked by the closure of interest rates in the U.S., impacting not only short-term maturity bonds but also longer-term ones. This movement helped explain the strong performance of stock indices in the month. On the other hand, the majority of the return of the main indices for the year was concentrated in a few names. For example, the S&P 500 had about 75% of its return explained by the “Magnificent 7” – a name attributed to a hypothetical basket of seven of the largest technology companies in the index.

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