Turim MFO’s monthly Economic Report is now available. Main highlights of the month include:
On the international stage, some countries already have more than 60% of the population vaccinated with at least one dose. However, with the emergence of new variants, the cases of Covid-19 have accelerated. The good news is that hospitalizations and deaths are not accompanying this acceleration, which reduces the social and economic impact of this new wave.
In the United States, the EDF signaled that interest rates would rise twice in 2023 – a significant change from the March communiqué, in which it had announced interest rate stability. Even so, the message remains that the normalization process should be slow and gradual.
The change in the EDF communiqué had an impact on commodities, although they had a robust rise in 2021, have undergone significant corrections in recent weeks.
The combination of robust growth with well-behaved long-term interest rates in the US has also resulted in a significant overperformance of growth stocks (companies with high long-term growth potential). In the year, these stocks had performed much worse than those of value (companies that have their price considered below their intrinsic value). Now, the difference between them has had a significant reduction.
In Brazil, June was again a very positive month for the flow of foreign investors on the stock exchange. This movement is mainly due to positive growth reviews and reduced perception of fiscal risk with the lowest expected numbers for debt/GDP at the end of 2021.
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