HQ TrustAugust 10 2021

HQ Trust – Half Year Report

1 min read

Written by Sven Lehmann, Portfolio Manager

So far, 2021 has been a very good year for equities: the S&P 500 gained around 15 percent in the first half of the year. Is that a record value? And can anything be deduced from history?

HQ Trust’s Sven Lehmann, Portfolio Manager, shared his analysiation of the performance of all first half-years since 1872 and divided them into six categories. Sven then evaluated how the performance of the market-wide US index turned out in the second six months in relation to the performance of the months from January to June.

  • “With its gain of 15 per cent, the S&P 500 still manages to rank 26th since 1872 in the first half of 2021.”
  • “However, in ten cases the US index gained more than 20 per cent in the first six months – for example, 62.6 per cent in 1933 or 41.8 per cent in 1975.”
  • “A gain of between 10 and 20 per cent has historically been good for the second half of the year on average, with the S&P 500 gaining another 11.1 per cent.”
  • “However, the dispersion of results was quite wide in the 37 cases in total, ranging from plus 30 to minus 20 per cent.”
  • “Historically, the strongest gain was between July and December after a price slump at the beginning of the year. Then prices rose by an average of 33.1 per cent. Since 1872, however, there has only been a minus of more than 20 per cent three times, in 1877, 1932 and 1962.”

Please note:

Investing in the capital markets involves risk and, in extreme cases, can result in the loss of all capital invested. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Forecasts are also not a reliable indicator of future performance. The presentation does not constitute investment, legal and/or tax advice. All content on our website is for information purposes only.